Five Key Trends Shaping the Surety Market in 2025

09 January 2025

The Market Enters a New Phase

The global surety market closed 2024 at an estimated $19.6 billion and is projected to grow to around $27 billion by 2030. But the headline numbers tell only part of the story. 2025 is shaping up to be a year of structural change as well as growth, with several trends that will materially affect how bonds are sourced, issued, and managed across international markets.

1. Infrastructure Investment Drives Sustained Demand

Construction activity remains the primary engine of surety demand globally. Government infrastructure programmes in the GCC, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America are generating consistent demand for performance bonds and advance payment bonds. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in the US, the GCC Vision 2030 programmes, and Morocco's World Cup-driven development pipeline are all active contributors to this demand.

2. Interest Rates Keep Surety Economically Attractive

The World Bank projected global interest rates to average around 4% over 2025 and 2026 — roughly double pre-COVID levels. For contractors assessing whether to provide a bank guarantee or a surety bond, the economics continue to favour surety in markets where banking credit is expensive and working capital is constrained.

3. Digitisation Is Accelerating

Over 70% of surety companies were planning investment in digital and analytical platforms in 2024. The shift to electronic bond issuance is moving from optional to expected in many markets. Governments and industry bodies are enacting legislation to support digital bonds, and 68% of bond clients have expressed a preference for digital delivery. This trend will continue to reduce administrative friction in the surety process.

4. Emerging Market Regulation Is Catching Up

India, Morocco, and several other emerging market economies are developing or refining regulatory frameworks for surety and guarantee products. This is reducing the gap between demand and accessible supply in these markets — but it also introduces complexity for contractors who need to understand the local rules before procuring a bond.

5. Talent and Knowledge Gaps Are a Challenge

The surety industry is facing a generational knowledge transfer challenge. Senior practitioners are retiring, and the depth of expertise at upper levels of the market is thinning. For clients, this underlines the value of working with experienced partners who understand not just the product but the nuances of different markets, contract frameworks, and employer requirements.

What This Means for International Contractors

The surety market in 2025 offers more options, in more markets, than at any previous point. But navigating those options requires knowledge of local conditions, regulatory requirements, and the practical realities of what different guarantors can provide. Solidum Global exists to simplify that process. Submit an enquiry and we will assess your requirement.

Reference: General Indemnity Group — Key Trends Facing the Surety Market in 2025: gi.insure/articles/key-trends-facing-the-surety-market-in-2025

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